A draft federal report from the Department of Energy concludes that the US electrical grid has entered a new planning era, one shaped primarily by the rapid growth of AI data centers rather than the traditional drivers of reliability upgrades and aging infrastructure replacement.
The DOE’s draft 2026 National Transmission Needs Study identifies transmission needs across 20 regions, drawing on more than 120 industry studies and planning documents. The agency says the findings will help inform future National Interest Electric Transmission Corridor designations, a tool used to prioritize major grid projects.
AI Load Growth Reshapes Planning
The report devotes a full section to AI-driven electricity demand, citing projections from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, EPRI, and McKinsey that US data center electricity consumption could exceed 400 terawatt-hours by 2030, more than 10% of total US electricity use recorded in 2023. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory projects data center demand growing at a 13% to 27% compound annual rate through 2028, when data centers could account for 6.7% to 12% of all US electricity consumption.
DOE also cites NERC forecasts showing total US electricity consumption climbing 25%, from 4,281 TWh in 2024 to 5,353 TWh in 2034, while EPRI projects overall demand rising 30% to 46% between 2020 and 2035 depending on the pace of data center development.
Regions Respond With Record Transmission Spending
The study points to some of the largest transmission investment programs on record as evidence that grid planners are building ahead of today’s needs. Examples cited include MISO’s $21.8 billion long-range transmission portfolio, SPP’s $7.7 billion investment program, and Texas’s $33 billion commitment to its first 765-kV transmission backbone.
Texas is expected to see the largest percentage increase in electricity consumption over the next decade, with NERC projecting the state’s internal demand growing from nearly 89 GW in 2025 to more than 105 GW in 2028. Virginia and Texas already hold the largest concentrations of data center electricity demand nationally, while Arizona and Oregon are projected among the fastest-growing markets through 2030.
Congestion Persists Despite New Lines
The US energized 85,000 circuit-miles of new, upgraded, and rebuilt transmission between 2016 and 2024, according to the study. Even so, transmission congestion added an estimated $11 billion to wholesale electricity costs in 2023, with most of that congestion concentrated in just 5% of operating hours.
A Site-Selection Challenge for Operators
Industry sources quoted in the coverage note that the DOE study maps where transmission will be needed, not where power is currently available. For data center developers, that distinction matters: generation capacity in a region does not guarantee that power can reach a specific site under contingency conditions by a required energization date. Operators evaluating large campuses are advised to assess whether nearby transmission projects are approved, their expected in-service dates, and their capacity to deliver hundreds of megawatts within hyperscale deployment timelines.